A fragile calm has settled over crypto markets as September opens, but history and market indicators warn this quiet may be the eye of a storm. Traders are already calling it “Red September” — the sector’s historically worst month — and sentiment has swung sharply toward caution.

Traders are already calling it “Red September.”

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index illustrates that shift. After reading a confident 75 in mid‑August, the index has plunged to 46 today, dragging the market from neutral into the “fear” zone and marking its weakest reading since the dark days of mid‑June. That rapid deterioration reflects growing anxiety as seasonal weakness crosses with a high‑stakes macroeconomic backdrop.

Historical data underpins the concern: since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 3.77% decline in September, a consistent pattern that has shaped expectations for the coming weeks. For now, Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding a tenuous line, with Bitcoin maintaining critical support around the $108,000 level. The market’s surface calm, however, masks notable technical fragility.

• Average Directional Index (ADX): sitting near 20, suggesting a choppy, directionless market lacking clear trend momentum.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): at roughly 40, signaling that selling pressure is beginning to outweigh buying interest.
• Squeeze Momentum Indicator: highlighting subdued momentum and a compressed market that could snap into heightened volatility when the squeeze releases.

Taken together, the data paint a picture of a market on edge: prices broadly steady for the moment, but with sentiment and technicals aligned toward a higher‑risk environment. Traders and investors should prepare for potentially sharp swings this month as seasonal patterns and macro moves collide. Risk management and a clear plan for volatility will be essential if September lives up to its harsh reputation.