PENGU Token Faces 50% Crash Risk As Selling Intensifies

PENGU Risks 50% Crash as Selling Pressure Intensifies

PENGU price was trading near $0.030 at press time, down more than 8% over the last 24 hours and erasing nearly all of its monthly gains. While the token still shows a 113% return over the past three months, fresh sell-side signals and shifting on-chain flows have raised questions about the sustainability of the rally, with charts pointing to a potential revisit to $0.014.

On-chain data highlights rising bearish pressure. Nansen shows exchange holdings for PENGU jumped 5.74% this week to 16.07 billion tokens — roughly 873 million tokens moved into centralized exchanges, a classic precursor to increased selling. At the same time:

Whale holdings fell 0.43%.

Smart money wallets slashed exposure by 12.83%, dropping to just 136.51 million tokens.

Public figure–linked wallets reduced positions, balances down 4.1%.

Only the top 100 addresses registered a 2.01% increase in holdings, now controlling 74.65 billion tokens — a pattern that may reflect internal redistribution among large holders rather than genuine accumulation. The net picture is clear: high-conviction players are trimming exposure while exchange supply swells, raising the odds of further downside.

Technicals add weight to the bearish thesis. On the 4‑hour chart, the 50‑period EMA is approaching a death cross below the 200 EMA, a setup often associated with extended declines. Earlier this week the 20 EMA crossed under the 200 EMA, which coincided with a 15% PENGU price drop from $0.033 to $0.028. If the 50–200 EMA crossover confirms, historical behavior suggests another leg down may follow.

Watch this closely: confirmed increases in exchange supply combined with a completed death cross would heighten the risk of a deeper correction toward levels around $0.014, implying roughly a 50% downside from current prices.

Traders and holders should monitor three primary signals: exchange inflows, smart‑money movements, and the 50/200 EMA relationship. A sustained rise in exchange balances plus confirmation of the 50–200 death cross would materially increase downside risk and warrant defensive positioning.